Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Less stability...Africa

It doesn't take a lot of data to see that this is a bad idea. The price falls like a rock with every drop, except the huge 155,000 idea bomber. Can you reindex enough Africa blogs to make those kind of drops happen regularly? Maybe, but beware...this is about one day worth of data, clearly there are a lot of little drops in a day knocking the price down.

Little drops? 4000 ideas is a little drop? It is when there are almost 16 million ideas in existence! Clearly most people will have the sense to dump these. So look at the second table.

Notice that the drops are consuming ideas. Since the total number of ideas is dropping the price changes are getting less severe...but still this is an industry in free fall, and that data is based on everyone dumping every idea to the market. We know there are those pools of ideas held by inactive players, so in reality consumption will be even slower. But do you see that last price? .26...the next drop will push that under .25, and we will revolutionize the industry.

What happens when there is a revolutionary new idea? Old ideas become obsolete. For our purpose they just disappear. If they are on the market, they disappear. If you are holding them, they disappear. If they are held by someone who hasn't logged in in months, they disappear. The new ideas are worth B$10 apiece, and total of the last hundred drops appears immediately on the market. Get in on the ground floor, that's only a little over a million ideas.

Take a look at the third table. That's the hundred drops after the revolution. Got some big jumps in there, but even the small drops are raising prices. Only the really small drops count against. It will probably take five hundred drops before the price stabalizes and begins to decline. Five hundred drops in Africa? About a month and a half.


$6.00


15,591,510


$18,831,123,046,708
Africa
$62,132,908,402,646


5,313






Quantity of
None Available
Drop
Quantity Price


15,591,510 $6.00
215
15,591,725 $4.26
689
15,592,414 $3.15
287
15,592,701 $2.25
12,628
15,605,329 $2.58
1,148
15,606,477 $1.97
1,292
15,607,769 $1.53
818
15,608,587 $1.14
2,927
15,611,514 $0.97
115,718
15,727,232 $1.54
2,755
15,729,987 $1.30
545
15,730,532 $0.95
4,162
15,734,694 $0.86
1,708
15,736,402 $0.68
431
15,736,833 $0.50
273
15,737,106 $0.35
2,583
15,739,689 $0.30
2,985
15,742,674 $0.25
545
15,743,219 $0.19
201
15,743,420 $0.13
560
15,743,980 $0.10
11,997
15,755,977 $0.11
187
15,756,164 $0.08


Quantity of

Initial Full Dump
Drop

Quantity Price



15,591,510 $6.00
215

14,811,935 $4.26
689

14,071,338 $3.16
287

13,367,771 $2.27
12,628

12,699,382 $2.68
1,148

12,064,413 $2.09
1,292

11,461,193 $1.66
818

10,888,133 $1.27
2,927

10,343,726 $1.15
115,718

9,826,540 $1.86
2,755

9,335,213 $1.70
545

8,868,452 $1.28
4,162

8,425,030 $1.30
1,708

8,003,778 $1.13
431

7,603,589 $0.84
273

7,223,410 $0.62
2,583

6,862,239 $0.59
2,985

6,519,127 $0.59
545

6,193,171 $0.46
201

5,883,512 $0.33
560

5,589,337 $0.26
11,997

5,309,870 $0.36
187

5,044,377 $0.26



$10.00


1,156,200


$18,831,123,046,708
Africa
$62,132,908,402,646


5,313






Quantity of
None Available
Drop
Quantity Price


1,156,200 $10.00
215
1,156,415 $8.54
689
1,157,104 $9.14
287
1,157,391 $8.18
12,628
1,170,019 $13.20
1,148
1,171,167 $15.74
1,292
1,172,459 $19.22
818
1,173,277 $21.30
2,927
1,176,204 $30.04
115,718
1,291,922 $50.68
2,755
1,294,677 $69.82
545
1,295,222 $69.34
4,162
1,299,384 $101.20
1,708
1,301,092 $128.00
431
1,301,523 $121.05
273
1,301,796 $105.35
2,583
1,304,379 $143.46
2,985
1,307,364 $199.81
545
1,307,909 $198.02
201
1,308,110 $164.37
560
1,308,670 $163.82
11,997
1,320,667 $261.86
187
1,320,854 $214.95
689
1,321,543 $223.47
16,273
1,337,816 $362.41
789
1,338,605 $386.97
8,050
1,346,655 $601.43
2,526
1,349,181 $811.31
29,446
1,378,627 $1,340.93
545
1,379,172 $1,313.74
2,368
1,381,540 $1,745.11
6,888
1,388,428 $2,668.58
172
1,388,600 $2,151.15
144
1,388,744 $1,699.49
9,256
1,398,000 $2,661.04
230
1,398,230 $2,227.69
72,468
1,470,698 $3,736.09
2,999
1,473,697 $5,104.75
517
1,474,214 $4,872.52
36,162
1,510,376 $8,067.56
12,269
1,522,645 $12,777.99
2,999
1,525,644 $17,310.17
287
1,525,931 $14,675.62
258
1,526,189 $12,257.49
5,023
1,531,212 $17,878.88
1,378
1,532,590 $20,790.74
1,148
1,533,738 $23,206.54
431
1,534,169 $21,030.87
65,135
1,599,304 $35,012.34
574
1,599,878 $33,094.97
1,464
1,601,342 $38,383.85
116,178
1,717,520 $63,946.87
116,178
1,833,698 $105,599.72
158
1,833,856 $76,202.69
4,162
1,838,018 $102,998.64
4,147
1,842,165 $137,648.00
646
1,842,811 $121,819.70
474
1,843,285 $102,106.33
2,755
1,846,040 $126,913.74
1,866
1,847,906 $143,857.82
80,030
1,927,936 $230,079.02
5,970
1,933,906 $305,467.85
1,306
1,935,212 $285,107.60
732
1,935,944 $232,561.48
172
1,936,116 $151,511.84
35,717
1,971,833 $236,773.32
373
1,972,206 $171,487.95
402
1,972,608 $132,186.25
1,378
1,973,986 $136,762.84
201
1,974,187 $97,534.84
1,378
1,975,565 $102,769.57
2,583
1,978,148 $123,967.38
402
1,978,550 $98,756.28
187
1,978,737 $71,908.96
144
1,978,881 $52,106.21
116,407
2,095,288 $86,033.31
1,205
2,096,493 $86,995.32
38,171
2,134,664 $138,618.33
1,033
2,135,697 $130,237.98
1,636
2,137,333 $137,036.68
402
2,137,735 $105,873.80
1,894
2,139,629 $116,761.67
1,115
2,140,744 $113,144.97
21,736
2,162,480 $174,121.70
172
2,162,652 $115,680.32
372
2,163,024 $89,432.81
101,501
2,264,525 $145,013.30
930
2,265,455 $129,844.09
1,401
2,266,856 $129,330.16
1,459
2,268,315 $130,079.52
11,497
2,279,812 $188,470.75
17,804
2,297,616 $275,577.78
472
2,298,088 $189,790.41
729
2,298,817 $154,620.52
601
2,299,418 $124,298.13
215
2,299,633 $87,231.14
1,716
2,301,349 $93,132.74
858
2,302,207 $84,566.92
1,430
2,303,637 $86,693.21
1,001
2,304,638 $81,793.63
515
2,305,153 $67,593.02

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